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Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s report says India’s Balakot strikes miss targets

A new report based on high-resolution satellite imagery has revealed that the India aerial strike in Balakot on Jaish-e-Mohammad camps were missed the targets and did not cause any ‘visible damage’.

The report by Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said that publicly available satellite imagery acquired by European Space Imaging the day after the strike suggests that buildings at the alleged camp were not “visibly damaged or destroyed”.

The imagery (of a higher resolution than previously available) shows conspicuously undamaged roofs, says the report, which runs counter to Indian claims of “successfully destroying the intended targets”.

The report also claims that the damage (or lack thereof) is not “consistent with either a SPICE 2000 strike or a strike with other munitions”.

“We believe that even a weapon with reduced explosive fill would cause damage to buildings that would be identifiable in the satellite imagery,” the authors of the report said.

The Balakot air strikes have been at the centre of a political storm in India, with several leaders of the ruling dispensation claiming that the air strikes had inflicted ‘serious damage’ on the JeM campsites, leading to anywhere from 200 to 400 casualties.

Pakistan vehemently rejected the Indian claim and international media also declared the Indian narrative as contrary to facts.

Another striking claim made by the report was that, as per the high-resolution images, all three weapon strikes missed their intended targets by similar distances. They all also missed in the same direction.

This, the authors suggest that the misses were “caused by a systematic targeting error”.

This error was likely caused in a scenario in which the Indian Air Force opted to rely solely on the weapon’s ‘set and forget’ GPS capabilities, they said.

“One explanation for the miss is that the SPICE 2000 bombs were incorrectly programmed to fly precisely into GPS points that were, say, 33 metres above their intended targets (the buildings on top of the ridge line). They performed as programmed and then continued on their trajectories until they struck the valley beneath,” the report said.

“The image (above) correlates the identified impact sites, the buildings that were the likely targets and a discrepancy between ellipsoidal and orthometric height which we have assumed to equate to 33 metres above the target buildings. Presented in 3D, this correlation results in consistent, parallel trajectories indicating a consistent targeting error,” it added.

Another possible explanation for the weapons ‘missing’ their targets was the inter-operational frailties of using French jets, Israeli weapons, US GPS and a targeting system that potentially used maps based on an older local Indian datum, the report said.

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